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[CI] ForecastIT.testOverflowToDisk failing on EAR builds #58806

@ywelsch

Description

@ywelsch

This test has failed three times in the past 2 weeks

https://gradle-enterprise.elastic.co/s/mp3vxqny35j4e

Output:

org.elasticsearch.xpack.ml.integration.ForecastIT > testOverflowToDisk FAILED
    org.elasticsearch.ElasticsearchStatusException: Test likely fails due to insufficient disk space on test machine, please free up space.
        at __randomizedtesting.SeedInfo.seed([8263E7B83540FE6E:CDB359E25C3EF7DE]:0)
        at org.elasticsearch.xpack.ml.integration.ForecastIT.testOverflowToDisk(ForecastIT.java:244)

        Caused by:
        org.elasticsearch.ElasticsearchStatusException: Cannot run forecast: Forecast cannot be executed as models exceed internal memory limit and available disk space is insufficient Minimum disk space required: [200mb]
            at org.elasticsearch.xpack.core.ml.utils.ExceptionsHelper.badRequestException(ExceptionsHelper.java:75)
            at org.elasticsearch.xpack.ml.action.TransportForecastJobAction.lambda$getForecastRequestStats$2(TransportForecastJobAction.java:125)
            at org.elasticsearch.xpack.ml.job.persistence.JobResultsProvider.lambda$getForecastRequestStats$40(JobResultsProvider.java:1368)
            at org.elasticsearch.xpack.ml.job.persistence.JobResultsProvider.lambda$searchSingleResult$33(JobResultsProvider.java:1165)
            at org.elasticsearch.action.ActionListener$1.onResponse(ActionListener.java:63)
            at org.elasticsearch.action.support.ContextPreservingActionListener.onResponse(ContextPreservingActionListener.java:43)
            at org.elasticsearch.client.node.NodeClient.lambda$executeLocally$0(NodeClient.java:91)
            at org.elasticsearch.tasks.TaskManager$1.onResponse(TaskManager.java:175)
            at org.elasticsearch.tasks.TaskManager$1.onResponse(TaskManager.java:169)
            at org.elasticsearch.action.support.ContextPreservingActionListener.onResponse(ContextPreservingActionListener.java:43)
            at org.elasticsearch.action.search.AbstractSearchAsyncAction.sendSearchResponse(AbstractSearchAsyncAction.java:545)
            at org.elasticsearch.action.search.ExpandSearchPhase.run(ExpandSearchPhase.java:117)
            at org.elasticsearch.action.search.AbstractSearchAsyncAction.executePhase(AbstractSearchAsyncAction.java:350)
            at org.elasticsearch.action.search.AbstractSearchAsyncAction.executeNextPhase(AbstractSearchAsyncAction.java:344)
            at org.elasticsearch.action.search.FetchSearchPhase.moveToNextPhase(FetchSearchPhase.java:231)
            at org.elasticsearch.action.search.FetchSearchPhase.lambda$innerRun$1(FetchSearchPhase.java:119)
            at org.elasticsearch.action.search.FetchSearchPhase.innerRun(FetchSearchPhase.java:125)
            at org.elasticsearch.action.search.FetchSearchPhase$1.doRun(FetchSearchPhase.java:95)
            at org.elasticsearch.common.util.concurrent.AbstractRunnable.run(AbstractRunnable.java:37)
            at org.elasticsearch.common.util.concurrent.TimedRunnable.doRun(TimedRunnable.java:44)
            at org.elasticsearch.common.util.concurrent.ThreadContext$ContextPreservingAbstractRunnable.doRun(ThreadContext.java:706)
            at org.elasticsearch.common.util.concurrent.AbstractRunnable.run(AbstractRunnable.java:37)
            at java.util.concurrent.ThreadPoolExecutor.runWorker(ThreadPoolExecutor.java:1128)
            at java.util.concurrent.ThreadPoolExecutor$Worker.run(ThreadPoolExecutor.java:628)
            at java.lang.Thread.run(Thread.java:834)

I'm not too familiar with this part of the system, but wonder if we truly have less than 200mb available on disk when running the test (in that case we could possibly raise it as infrastructural issue), or if we should perhaps have the test skipped in case where these conditions are not met.

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