From fe99d953d5c3d8611e87d5b61a1b75720cbaf007 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: ishotjr Date: Thu, 1 Aug 2019 13:42:39 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] :sparkles: :crystal_ball: Add Shiny Future post --- _posts/2019-07-29-the-shiny-rebble-future.md | 231 +++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 231 insertions(+) create mode 100644 _posts/2019-07-29-the-shiny-rebble-future.md diff --git a/_posts/2019-07-29-the-shiny-rebble-future.md b/_posts/2019-07-29-the-shiny-rebble-future.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b0b7568 --- /dev/null +++ b/_posts/2019-07-29-the-shiny-rebble-future.md @@ -0,0 +1,231 @@ +--- +layout: post +title: "The shiny Rebble future: one year after the Pebble server shutdown" +date: 2019-07-29 18:00:00 +# categories: community +--- + +Hi out there, Rebble world! [Joshua](https://joshuawise.com) on the +microphone here for a bit. It's been a year since the Pebble servers have +shut down, and I'm still wearing my beloved Pebble 2 on my wrist every day; +as far as I can tell, it's *still* the case that nothing else out there +compares to these things. As the buttons start to wear out on this one, +though, I'm starting to ask some of the same questions that I hear echoed +out in the Pebble world: what does the future of Rebble and of +Pebble-like things look like? Well, I'm an optimist on that -- and I wanted +to fill you all in on some of the reasons why. I'll catch you after the +fold. + + + +Lingering in the back of my head have been three things: money, movement, +and hardware. Without money, the Rebble web services can't run; without +forward movement, we fade quietly into the sunset; and without hardware, +there's nothing to put on our wrists! On all three of those, I have pretty +darn good news in the short term, and I have ideas for the long run, too. +I'm going to get into each of those in a moment, but before I do, I want to +give you the same proviso [that Katharine did last +year](http://rebble.io/2018/02/15/rebble-web-services.html): I can't guarantee the future, but I'm going +to give you my best guess. Let's start! + +## Money + +I think this is the biggest question on everyone's mind after we watched the +downfall of our beloved Pebble Technology Corporation: how can we build a +_sustainable_ way to keep our watches ticking? After all, web hosting can +be pretty expensive for a cloud application like Rebble, and we're not even +making any revenue by selling watches. The solution that we came up with +was to have a two-tier model: everybody gets access to the basic services +for Pebble for free -- firmware updates, the app store, account management, +and such, but the things that cost us money -- dictation and weather -- we'd +charge a small amount of money for, and if we got the math right, the paid +users would subsidize the free users. + +So the question is: how well did that work out? I'm happy to say that it +seems to be working pretty well. We have around 7,000 paid users, which +comes out to about an annual run rate of around $190,000. This means that we're +doing a fair bit better than breaking even for now: even though we're not +drowning in cash, Rebble is definitely managing to pay its own rent from +Amazon. This is heartwarming news, and I hope that it makes everyone feel +better about the sustainability of Rebble itself, and also about Rebble's +model for running services. + +On that front, I wanted to thank all of you who are Rebble subscribers: +without you, it wouldn't be possible to keep this service running, and you +all are amazing proof that people will pay to sustain technology that they +want to have more of in their life. :heart_eyes: [Maciej Ceglowski](http://idlewords.com/), +proprietor of a small bookmarking service called [Pinboard](https://pinboard.in), wrote [a +good piece a few years ago](https://blog.pinboard.in/2011/12/don_t_be_a_free_user/) about the importance of small paid services, and +how they help build business models that center their users as a priority, +instead of business models that center investors or surveillance systems as +priorities; I have looked to that as inspiration, and I'm glad that we can follow in those footsteps. It's a joy to serve you all! + +I suppose this would be the right time, also, to invite those of you who +haven't joined us as subscribers to come on board! I think that $3/month (or +$33/year, if you subscribe for a year at a time) is a great value for being +able to dictate messages while I'm out on my bike, and for knowing at a +glance when the sun is going to close me out without having to pull out my +phone -- and, of course, as I noted above, subscriptions go towards keeping +Rebble sustainable. So it's never too late to [join the +Rebble-lution](https://auth.rebble.io/account/])! + +## Movement + +One worry, of course, is that if Rebble is standing still, we start to look +pretty dead. After all, we'd been pretty quiet for about a year after the +initial Rebble Web Services launch. Well, I assure you that we're not dead! +Some of you with eagle eyes :eyes: have been watching commits to the Rebble +repositories, and have noticed that the pace of development has picked up +some over the past few months, culminating with the most recent [launch of +Timeline](http://rebble.io/2019/07/24/its-timeline-time.html). You might be asking: what lead to this sudden surge in motion? +And will the development continue? + +Well, in May, [Katharine](https://twitter.com/KatharineBerry), [Ish Ot +Jr.](https://twitter.com/IShJR), and [I](https://joshuawise.com) got +together in a Hangout, and we spent some time thinking about the future of +Rebble. We decided that we had a little bit of money left to spare, and +that we wanted to reinvest it in the development of Rebble, and so we'd pay +someone to do a little engineering work. Well, precisely, we'd pay, well -- +me! About a year ago, I left my previous day job to [do some software and +hardware consulting](https://accelerated.tech), and as a result of that, it +suddenly became possible for me to dedicate time in small quantities, rather +than as "everything or nothing". For the past few months, I've been doing +about six hours of paid work a week or so on Rebble (and maybe another five +or six during the evenings and on the weekends!) to knock off some features +that we've been hoping to build. + +I've been doing a bunch of work behind the scenes on building development +tools and administrative features so that we can help you out with billing +problems, but Timeline was the first major fruit of that work that was +visible to you, our beloved users. I don't think Timeline will be the end, +either: on my to-do list is to start building out the app store developer +portal, and even some work on longer-term ideas for keeping the Pebble +ecosystem alive. Of course, all of the work that I'm doing is and always +will be open-source, just like the rest of Rebble (it's even written into +the contract!). + +I'm doing this all on the back of the amazing work that Katharine did to get +Rebble Web Services off the ground. She basically put this whole thing +together single-handedly, and I owe her incredible thanks for such a strong +foundation to keep building on top of. If you haven't watched her talk from +[!!Con West 2019](http://bangbangcon.com/west), it's a great story about how +we got here, told expertly in 10 minutes -- [go watch it; you won't regret +it](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6qrfjbb5jKw)! + +A year ago, Ish Ot Jr. wrote and said that we're just getting started, and +he was right. It feels to me like we have a path forward to keep building +Rebble into the future: we took a breather after we launched, but we're back +at it, and now we're geared up to -- as Pebble liked to say -- keep making +awesome happen! :rocket: + +## Hardware + +The last piece of the puzzle, I claim, is hardware. I'm not the only one +with holes bursting in the buttons of his Pebble 2. Pebble Technology +Corporation isn't making any more of the things, so in theory, our userbase +is only shrinking from here, and that's not a good place to be. How can we +keep more Pebbles running for longer, and is there ever a possibility of +there being more? + +### Pebble life support: you can save your Pebble now! + +I am a die-hard believer in my Pebble 2, but as we all know, these things +have a serious design defect: [the silicone buttons on the side fall apart +after about a year](https://m.imgur.com/a/98Z7A). There have been a handful of makeshift solutions out +there, but I never found the Sugru approach to be great. Fortunately, the +quality of 3D printing has gotten quite good in recent years -- and even +more fortunately, two wonderful Pebblers have been experimenting with +hardware to rebuild Pebbles stronger, and, frankly, I think even +better-looking. Tation and Astosia have [a Shapeways store](https://www.shapeways.com/shops/astosia?section=pebble&sort=) with all manner +of exciting fixes for your Pebble 2, including entirely new cases that use +the original "OG" Pebble buttons; they also have [Imgur albums](https://m.imgur.com/gallery/cvdagKI) [with the guts](https://m.imgur.com/a/nGeXEq0) of how to dissasemble and reassemble the devices. They're also experimenting with +replacement 3D printed rubber buttons that you can glue right on. So if +your Pebble 2 is falling apart, don't despair: there are fixes that you can +make today to bring it back to life! There are also some [models available](https://www.thingiverse.com/thing:3464868) [on Thingiverse](https://www.thingiverse.com/thing:2599551), for those inspired to print their own. + +The batteries in these things also don't last forever, we've found. +Luckily, it seems like you can get anything in China if you know where to +look -- people have had success with batteries from Aliexpress for the +original Pebbles, for Pebble Time and Pebble Time Steel, and for Pebble 2. +If you're handy doing a little soldering, Pebble batteries are not too +tricky to replace, and you can get years more of reliable service from your +beloved Pebble. + +### Pebble life support going forward + +Here's the bit where I start to speculate a little bit. I've heard +[rumblings of the GadgetWraps guys making some side buttons for Pebble 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/pebble/comments/chqa9v/pebble_2_side_buttons_should_we_makesell_these/) with +their beautiful silicone molding process. If they do, it could be possible +to get the same lovely smooth feeling buttons that you were used to, without +any major surgery at all. If that sounds like something you'd like, you +might want to shoot them some mail telling them that you'd be interested! + +I've also been talking a little bit with a low-volume injection molding +company. I don't want to say too much about that, since I don't know where +it will end up, but it's definitely possible that in the not-so-distant +future, we could have new cases for Pebbles in all manner of interesting +shapes designs, and materials. The logistics of selling them are very scary +to me, but if there's interest, Astosia, Tation, and I are interested in +making it happen! + +### The post-Pebble problem + +Of course, this is all well and good, but how can we bring new Rebblers into the +fold? In some ideal universe, it would be nice to sell new hardware, +without all of the pain of trying to limp along something that we didn't +design. What if we could improve on Pebble with new features? After all, +Bluetooth microcontrollers have come a long way in the last few years in +terms of power consumption... + +It sounds like a pipe dream, but it's not entirely. Over the Christmas +break last year, I [designed an nRF52840-powered microcontroller board](https://github.com/jwise/aWatch2-hw) that, +hopefully, could be shrunk down into the form factor of a watch. A month or +two later, I had a circuit board that I called "Asterix" that I had +Bluetooth and a display up and running on ... and a month after that, I +managed to bring RebbleOS up on that, along with my Pebble app "Dali Clock". +For the first time in history, I think, I had an application that was built +using only Pebble tools running on non-Pebble Technology Corp hardware! + +I don't want to get your hopes up too much. There's a lot of work to do. +Barry -- who some of you on Discord may know as +[ginge](https://github.com/ginge) -- did an *amazing* job laying the +groundwork for RebbleOS, but as everybody who's come and asked about it +knows, we still have a long way to go on the software front. The hardware +that I have is about four times too big; I think it's definitely possible to +shrink it, but it'll require a good amount of effort to do. And the +question of manufacturing it looms huge in my mind, and I don't know where +to even start with that. + +But it feels possible, in a way that it didn't a year ago. I'm hoping that +I can put some time towards that once I get Timeline settled in and under +control. I don't know anything about manufacturing, and distributing and +selling them scares the dickens out of me even if I manage to make more than +one of them. So, hey, if you know about these things and want to take +charge of a piece of it -- come in and help out! I'd be happy to work with +you! + +On that front, I'll leave you with an [exciting little video of Asterix +booting into RebbleOS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gd2VBVRp234). It's +way less complete than it looks: it's incredibly unstable, and it doesn't +even know how to talk to the Pebble app yet. There's so much I don't know, +and I don't even know how to estimate how much is behind it. But it's hard +not to look at it and grin. What is the purpose of the future, if not to +give us something to aspire to? + +## Conclusions + +Rebble is alive and well. I touched on three pieces: money, progress, and +hardware. These three things all feed into each other: money keeps us +alive, and helps us make progress; progress keeps us alive, and helps us +make hardware; and keeping hardware alive keeps us alive, and lets +Rebble keep making money. In the short term, Rebble is healthy on all three +of these fronts. There's a plausible idea for how we could remain healthy +going forward, too! It's going to take work, and it's going to take the +continued support of you, our amazing community, but it's not impossible. + +On a personal note, it feels very rewarding to get to serve yinz Rebblers. +Pebble built a passionate group of users. I'm excited. + +Ok, that seems like about it for today. Thanks for staying with us so far, +and I'm looking forward to coming with you all into the Shiny Rebble Future +-- keep your Pebbles on your wrists! \ No newline at end of file