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32 changes: 16 additions & 16 deletions content/_index.md
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -4,29 +4,29 @@ description: Developing the Theory and Practice of Epidemiological Forecasting
layout: landing

carousel:
- pre: Our Tools
- pre: Tools
title: Real-time Indicators of COVID-19 Activity
ref: covidcast
alt: Explore COVIDcast
alt: Explore the COVIDcast Dashboard
image: covidcast_v2.jpg
- pre: Our Tools
title: Forecast Evaluation Dashboard
- pre: Tools
title: Evaluation of COVID-19 Forecasts
link: /forecast-eval
alt: Explore the new COVID-19 forecast evaluation dashboard
alt: Explore the Forecast Evaluation Dashboard
image: forecast_evaluation_dashboard.jpg
- pre: Our Tools
title: CTIS Results Dashboard
- pre: Tools
title: COVID Trends and Impact Survey (CTIS)
ref: covidcast/survey-results
alt: Explore the COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey Results
alt: Explore the CTIS Dashboard
image: covidcast_survey.jpg
- pre: Our Blog Post
title: New and improved COVID Symptom Survey Tracks Testing and Mask-Wearing
ref: 2020-10-06-survey-wave-4
alt: Learn more
image: landing-pg_hero-img-2_New and Improved COVID Symptom Survey Tracks Testing and Mask-Wearing.jpg
- pre: Our Research and White Papers
title: "Pancasting: forecasting epidemics from provisional data"
link: https://delphi.cmu.edu/~lcbrooks/brooks2020pancasting.pdf
- pre: Blog
title: COVID Vaccination Trends Among the Hispanic Community in the United States
ref: 2021-04-29-vaccine-trends-hispanic
alt: View Post
image: landing-pg_hero_vaccine_hispanic.jpg
- pre: Research
title: An Open Repository of Real-Time COVID-19 Indicators
link: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.12.21259660v1
alt: View Paper
image: landing-pg_hero-img-2_Pancasting_ forecasting epidemics from provisional data.jpg
---
40 changes: 26 additions & 14 deletions content/about/_index.md
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Expand Up @@ -5,47 +5,59 @@ layout: about
collaborators:
- name: Amazon
group: collaborator
- name: CDC
- name: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
group: collaborator
- name: Change Healthcare
group: collaborator
- name: Defense Threat Reduction Agency
group: collaborator
- name: Facebook
group: collaborator
- name: Uptake
- name: Google
group: collaborator
- name: Google.org
group: collaborator
- name: Optum
group: collaborator
- name: Google.org
group: sponsor
- name: Quidel Inc.
group: collaborator
- name: Uptake
group: collaborator

---

### Who are we?

We're a research group based out of Carnegie Mellon University dedicated to developing the theory and practice of epidemic tracking and forecasting. Pre-pandemic we worked mostly on influenza, dengue and norovirus; now we focus on COVID. We procure unique data streams that reflect epidemic (or pandemic) activity, extract relevant indicators, and make these publicly and continuously available. We and others then use these indicators for nowcasting (situational awareness) and short-term forecasting.
We're a research group based out of Carnegie Mellon University dedicated to developing the theory and practice of epidemic tracking and forecasting. Pre-pandemic we worked mostly on influenza, dengue and norovirus; we've now picked up a focus on COVID. We procure unique data streams that reflect epidemic (or pandemic) activity, extract relevant indicators, and make these publicly and continuously available. We and others then use these indicators for nowcasting (situational awareness) and short-term forecasting.

### Who is our audience?

Public health authorities (federal, state, local), the healthcare industry, the public and private sectors, fellow researchers working on epidemic tracking and forecasting, data journalists, and the general public.

### Delphi's milestones

- Since 2013, we've supported U.S. CDC's Influenza Division in advancing and growing a [scientific community around flu forecasting](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/flusight/index.html). We've been [perennial leaders in forecasting accuracy](https://www.cs.cmu.edu/~roni/CDC%20Flu%20Challenge%202014-2018%20Results.pdf).
In reverse chronological order.

- **April 2020.** We began supporting and advising the U.S. CDC in their community-driven COVID-19 forecasting effort. This work (collaborative with the [Reich Lab](https://reichlab.io) at UMass) includes:

* Creating and evaluating an ensemble forecast from the 70+ forecasts in the [COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://covid19forecasthub.org), which serves as the basis of the [CDC's official communications](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html) on COVID-19 forecasting.

* Creating a [forecast evaluation dashboard](https://delphi.cmu.edu/forecast-eval/), which provides an interactive analysis of the performance of Hub forecasters.

- **March 2020.** We launched [COVIDcast]({{< relref "covidcast" >}}), the nation's largest public repository of diverse, real-time indicators of COVID-19 activity.
* Our indicators are freely available through a [public API]({{< apiref "api/covidcast.html" >}}), which is updated daily with the latest data.

- Since 2016, we've developed the [Delphi Epidata API]({{< apiref "/" >}}), which provides real-time access to epidemiological surveillance data.
* Several of the underlying data sources (on which these indicators are built) would not exist or be publicly available without our efforts. This includes:

- Since 2016, we've been providing [flu nowcasts](https://delphi.cmu.edu/nowcast/) to U.S. CDC, states' departments of health, and the public.
* A massive [national daily survey]({{< relref "surveys">}}) we're running in [partnership with Facebook](https://covid-survey.dataforgood.fb.com/survey_and_map_data.html). Over 20 million Americans have answered the survey since April 2020, providing real-time insights into, e.g., self-reported symptoms, mask wearing, testing, contacts, and vaccination.

- Since 2019, we've been working directly with U.S. CDC as a National Center of Excellence for Influenza Forecasting (a 5-year designation).
* An enormous database of medical insurance claims that have been de-identified in accordance with HIPAA privacy regulations, covering more than half the U.S. population. This data is made available by health system partners including Change Healthcare, and provides insights into disease activity through outpatient visits and hospitalizations.

- Since March 2020, we've created and maintained the [nation's largest public repository of diverse, geographically-detailed, real-time indicators of COVID-19 activity]({{< relref "covidcast" >}}) in the U.S. Our indicators cover every rung of the [severity pyramid](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1jvIycxDRMEIozKIowv2UyvSqZyF5y6jR8EAXUEK22D4/edit?usp=sharing), and are freely available through a [public API]({{< apiref "api/covidcast.html" >}}).

- Several of the underlying data sources (on which these indicators are built) would not exist or be publicly available without our efforts. This includes:
- **2019.** We became a CDC National Center of Excellence for Influenza Forecasting, one of two nationally (and a 5-year designation).

- A massive [national daily survey]({{< relref "surveys">}}) we're running in [partnership with Facebook](https://covid-survey.dataforgood.fb.com/survey_and_map_data.html). Over 12 million Americans have answered the survey since April, providing real-time insights into, e.g., [self-reported symptoms]({{< relref "2020-08-26-fb-survey#whats-in-the-survey" >}}), [mask wearing]({{< relref "2020-10-06-survey-wave-4.html#mask-wearing" >}}), [testing]({{< relref "2020-10-06-survey-wave-4#testing" >}}), and contacts, all broken down by various demographics.
- **2016.** We developed and deployed [influenza nowcasts](https://delphi.cmu.edu/nowcast/) for the CDC, state departments of public health, and the public.

- An enormous database of medical insurance claims that have been de-identified in accordance with HIPAA privacy regulations, covering more than half the US population, made possible through health system partners including Change Healthcare. We use this to produce a new [syndromic COVID-19 indicator based on doctor visits]({{< relref "2020-10-14-dv-signal" >}}), and other indicators based on hospitalizations and ICU admissions.
- **2016.** We developed and deployed the [Epidata API]({{< apiref "/" >}}), which provides real-time access to epidemiological surveillance data.

- Since April 2020, we've been supporting and advising U.S. CDC in their community-driven COVID-19 forecasting effort, which includes [creating and evaluating an ensemble forecast]({{< relref "2020-09-21-forecast-demo" >}}) from the 70+ forecasts under submission that serves as the basis for the [CDC's official COVID-19 forecast communications](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html). We also contribute our own short-term forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths, which can be found in the [COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://covid19forecasthub.org).
- **2013.** We began supporting the U.S. CDC's Influenza Division in advancing and growing a [scientific community around influenza forecasting](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/flusight/index.html). We've been [perennial leaders in forecasting accuracy](https://www.cs.cmu.edu/~roni/CDC%20Flu%20Challenge%202014-2018%20Results.pdf) ever since.
27 changes: 13 additions & 14 deletions content/about/center-of-excellence/index.md
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Expand Up @@ -3,12 +3,12 @@ title: Delphi National Center of Excellence for Epidemic Forecasting
layout: coe
members:
- name: Carnegie Mellon University
group: DELPHI Research Group
group: Delphi
link: /
location: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States
pi:
- ryan # people keys
- roni
- ryan
- name: Carnegie Mellon University
group: EPP
link: https://www.cmu.edu/epp
Expand All @@ -30,27 +30,26 @@ members:
- lipsitch

sisters:
- name: CDC's Influence Division
description: Our funders and collaborators at the [CDC's Influenza Division](https://www.cdc.gov/ncird/flu.html), specially the Influenza Applied Research & Modeling team at the [Epidemiology and Prevention branch](https://www.cdc.gov/hiv/dhap/eb/index.html).
- name: CDC's Influenza Division
description: Our funders and collaborators at the [CDC's Influenza Division](https://www.cdc.gov/ncird/flu.html), in particular the Influenza Applied Research and Modeling team at the [Epidemiology branch](https://www.cdc.gov/hiv/dhap/eb/index.html).
link: https://www.cdc.gov/ncird/flu.html
img: logos/cdc.png
- name: University of Massachusetts Amherst
description: Our sister organization, the [Influenza Forecasting Center of Excellence at UMass Amherst](https://reichlab.io/).
description: Our sister organization, the [Influenza Forecasting Center of Excellence](https://reichlab.io/) at University of Massachusetts Amherst.
link: https://reichlab.io/
img: logos/reichlab.png

supporters:
- Allegheny County Dept of Health
- Allegheny County Department of Health
- Change Healthcare
- DTRA
- Defense Thread Reduction Agency
- Facebook
- Google.org
- Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute
- Massachusetts Dept of Public Health
- Massachusetts Department of Public Health
- Microsoft Azure
- Pennsylvania Dept. of Health
- Pennsylvania Department of Health
- Quidel Inc.
- UnitedHealth / Optum
- UPMC
- Optum
- University of Pittsburgh Medical Center
---

The Delphi National Center of Excellence for Influenza Forecasting was established in 2019. It is a CDC funded and CDC-designated center working on advancing influenza forecasting, and enabling and improving the usefulness of forecasts of both seasonal and pandemic influenza. During the 2020 pandemic, the center expanded to include real-time tracking ("nowcasting") and forecasting of COVID-19, giving rise to the COVIDcast project. Our goal is to inform public health responses and policy development at the national, state and local levels. Another goal is to inform and empower the general public, providing trustworthy information and reliable short term forecasts that increase the credibility of and trust in public health authorities.
The Delphi National Center of Excellence for Influenza Forecasting was established in 2019. It is a CDC-funded and CDC-designated center working on advancing influenza forecasting, and enabling and improving the usefulness of forecasts of both seasonal and pandemic influenza. During the 2020 pandemic, the center expanded to include real-time tracking ("nowcasting") and forecasting of COVID-19, giving rise to the COVIDcast project. Our goal is to inform public health responses and policy development at the national, state and local levels. Another goal is to inform and empower the general public, providing reliable information and tools that increase the credibility of and trust in public health authorities.
4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions content/about/news/headless/2016_12.md
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@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
---
date: 2016-12-01
title: Delphi wins 2015-2016 forecasting challenge
title: Delphi Wins 2015-2016 Forecasting Challenge
category: accomplishment
---

[Our system took the top spot in the 2015-2016 flu forecasting challenge](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/spotlights/flu-activity-forecasts-2016-2017.htm). ([Results summary](https://www.cs.cmu.edu/~roni/CDC%20Flu%20Challenge%202015-2016%20Results.pdf).)
Our system took the [top spot in the flu forecasting challenge of 2015-2016](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/spotlights/flu-activity-forecasts-2016-2017.htm), out of 14 submissions. ([Results summary](https://www.cs.cmu.edu/~roni/CDC%20Flu%20Challenge%202015-2016%20Results.pdf).)
7 changes: 2 additions & 5 deletions content/about/news/headless/2017_10.md
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@@ -1,10 +1,7 @@
---
date: 2017-10-01
title: Delphi wins 2016-2017 forecasting challenge
title: Delphi Wins 2016-2017 Forecasting Challenge
category: accomplishment
---

We did it again! [Our
two systems took the top two spots in the 2016-2017 flu forecasting
challenge (out of 28 submissions).](https://www.cmu.edu/news/stories/archives/2017/september/flu-forecasts.html)
([Results summary](https://www.cs.cmu.edu/~roni/CDC%20Flu%20Challenge%202016-2017%20Results.pdf).)
We did it again! Our two systems took the [top two spots in the flu forecasting challenge of 2016-2017](https://www.cmu.edu/news/stories/archives/2017/september/flu-forecasts.html), out of 28 submissions. ([Results summary](https://www.cs.cmu.edu/~roni/CDC%20Flu%20Challenge%202016-2017%20Results.pdf).)
7 changes: 2 additions & 5 deletions content/about/news/headless/2018_11.md
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1,10 +1,7 @@
---
date: 2018-10-01
title: Delphi wins 2017-2018 forecasting challenge
title: Delphi Wins 2017-2018 Forecasting Challenge
category: accomplishment
---

and yet again! Our forecasting systems took the top
spot each of the three separate flu forecasting challenges of
2017-2018 (out of up to 30 submissions).
([Results summary](https://www.cs.cmu.edu/~roni/CDC%20Flu%20Challenge%202017-2018%20Results.pdf).)
And yet again! Our forecasting systems took the top spot in each of the three separate flu forecasting challenges of 2017-2018, out of up to 30 submissions. ([Results summary](https://www.cs.cmu.edu/~roni/CDC%20Flu%20Challenge%202017-2018%20Results.pdf).)
4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions content/about/news/headless/2019_10_CenterOfExcellence.md
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@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
---
date: 2019-10-01
title: Delphi named 'Center of Excellence'
title: Delphi named a Center of Excellence
category: accomplishment
---

[CDC has just named us "National Center of Excellence for Influenza Forecasting"](https://www.cmu.edu/news/stories/archives/2019/october/cdc-funds-carnegie-mellons-flu-forecasting-center.html) (one of two nationally.)
We were just named a national [Center of Excellence for Influenza Forecasting](https://www.cmu.edu/news/stories/archives/2019/october/cdc-funds-carnegie-mellons-flu-forecasting-center.html) by the CDC, one of two nationally. This is a 5 year designation.
7 changes: 2 additions & 5 deletions content/about/news/headless/2020_03_covid.md
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@@ -1,10 +1,7 @@
---
date: 2020-03-01
title: Delphi shifts focus to COVID-19
title: Delphi Shifts Focus to COVID-19
category: update
---

We are focusing our efforts at this point on COVID-19
nowcasting and forecasting. We are adapting our existing systems, and
developing new ones. Some of our regular activities may be halted as a
result.
We are focusing our efforts at this point on COVID-19 tracking and forecasting. We are adapting our existing systems, and developing new ones. Some of our regular activities may be halted as a result.
8 changes: 2 additions & 6 deletions content/about/news/headless/2020_04_covidcast.md
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@@ -1,14 +1,10 @@
---
date: 2020-04-01
title: Launch of COVIDcast v1
title: Delphi Launches COVIDcast
category: update
---

We launched our [COVIDcast system]({{< relref "covidcast">}}), which displays
indicators related to COVID-19 activity level across the U.S. These
indicators are derived from a variety of anonymized, aggregated data sources
made available by multiple partners, and are publicly available at the
[COVIDcast endpoint]({{< apiref "api/covidcast.html">}}) of our [Epidata API]({{< apiref "api/README.html">}}).
We launched our [COVIDcast system]({{< relref "covidcast">}}), which makes available indicators related to COVID-19 activity level across the U.S. These indicators are derived from a variety of anonymized, aggregated data sources made available by multiple partners, and are publicly available at the [COVIDcast endpoint]({{< apiref "api/covidcast.html">}}) of our [Epidata API]({{< apiref "api/README.html">}}).

Related news articles:

Expand Down
4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions content/about/news/headless/2020_10_fellows.md
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@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
---
date: 2020-10-01
title: 13 Google Fellows join Delphi for 6 months
title: Google Fellows Join Delphi for 6 Months
category: update
---

We've welcomed [13 Google Fellows](https://www.cmu.edu/news/stories/archives/2020/september/covidcast-google.html) to Delphi and are excited to have them on board.
We've welcomed [14 Google Fellows](https://www.cmu.edu/news/stories/archives/2020/september/covidcast-google.html) to Delphi and are excited to have them on board!
4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions content/about/news/headless/2020_12_chng_partnership.md
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@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
---
date: 2020-12-01
title: COVIDcast enhanced with Change Healthcare COVID-19 de-identified claims data
title: COVIDcast Enhanced with Change Healthcare Claims Data
category: update
---

[Change Healthcare and Carnegie Mellon University’s Delphi Research Group announce the launch of Delphi's enhanced COVIDcast real-time COVID-19 indicators](https://newsroom.changehealthcare.com/press-releases/carnegie-mellon-university-s-delphi-research-group-enhances-covi)
Change Healthcare and Delphi announce the [launch of new COVIDcast indicators](https://newsroom.changehealthcare.com/press-releases/carnegie-mellon-university-s-delphi-research-group-enhances-covi) using de-identified claims data from Change Healthcare.
4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions content/about/news/headless/2021_05_12_spaig_award.md
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@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
---
date: 2021-05-12
title: Delphi Research Group and collaborators honored for COVIDcast
title: Delphi and Collaborators Honored for COVIDcast
category: update
---

[The American Statistical Association (ASA) presented the 2021 Statistical Partnerships Among Academe, Industry, and Government (SPAIG) Award to Carnegie Mellon University’s Delphi Research Group and their COVIDcast partners](https://www.cmu.edu/dietrich/news/news-stories/2021/may/spaig-covid.html)
The American Statistical Association (ASA) presented the 2021 [Statistical Partnerships Among Academe, Industry, and Government (SPAIG) award](https://www.cmu.edu/dietrich/news/news-stories/2021/may/spaig-covid.html) to Delphi and their COVIDcast collaborators.
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