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11 | 11 | - CDC data |
12 | 12 | - FDOH data |
13 | 13 | - time series |
14 | | -heroImage: /blog/images/blog-lg-img_hello-world.jpg |
15 | | -heroImageThumb: /blog/images/blog-thumb-img_hello-world.jpg |
| 14 | +heroImage: /blog/images/unpack-cfr-full-size.jpg |
| 15 | +heroImageThumb: /blog/images/unpack-cfr-thumb.jpg |
16 | 16 | summary: | |
17 | 17 | Since the pandemic started, case fatality has plummeted. How can we unpack treatment improvements versus younger patients, increased testing, etc.? |
18 | 18 | acknowledgements: | |
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52 | 52 |
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53 | 53 | <div id="introduction" class="section level2"> |
54 | 54 | <h2>Introduction</h2> |
55 | | -<p>Since the COVID-19 pandemic first reached the United States, the case fatality (CFR) rate has fallen considerably. Between the first peak in mid-April and the second peak in mid-July, the case fatality rate fell from 7.9% to the 0.7%–2.3% range, where it has since remained despite cases rising again into an (ongoing) third wave:</p> |
| 55 | +<p>Since July, our team at CMU DELPHI has been tracking the drop in case fatality rates, driven by the question: <strong><em>“What explains the movement (and apparent overall decline) in case fatality rate over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic?”</em></strong> Last month, we released a <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.04825">manuscript</a> analyzing the data through Thanksgiving. This blog post distills our work on unpacking the drop in CFR, with newly updated data released on December 31st.</p> |
| 56 | +<p>Indeed, over the course of the pandemic, the case fatality (CFR) rate has fallen considerably. Between the first peak in mid-April and the second peak in mid-July, the case fatality rate in the United States fell from 7.9% to the 0.7%–2.3% range, where it has since remained despite cases rising again into an (ongoing) third wave:</p> |
56 | 57 | <div class="figure"> |
57 | 58 | <img src="/blog/2021-01-21-unpack-cfr_files/img_country/national_cases.svg" alt="" /> |
58 | 59 | <p class="caption"><strong>Figure 1.</strong> From left to right: confirmed cases, deaths, and case fatality rate, calculated using 7-day trailing averages based on national reporting data available via USAFacts (<span class="citation"><a href="#ref-usafacts" role="doc-biblioref">USAFacts</a> (<a href="#ref-usafacts" role="doc-biblioref">2020</a>)</span>) and pulled from the CMU COVIDcast API (<span class="citation"><a href="#ref-covidcast2020api" role="doc-biblioref">Project</a> (<a href="#ref-covidcast2020api" role="doc-biblioref">2020</a>)</span>). Data outside the April 1st to December 1st time range considered in this study is grayed out.</p> |
59 | 60 | </div> |
60 | | -<p>Since July, our team at CMU DELPHI has been tracking the drop in case fatality rates, driven by the question: <strong><em>“What explains the movement (and apparent overall decline) in case fatality rate over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic?”</em></strong> Last month, we released a <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.04825">manuscript</a> analyzing the data through Thanksgiving. This blog post provides a vignette of our work on unpacking the drop in CFR, with newly updated data released on December 31st.</p> |
61 | 61 | <div id="existing-hypotheses" class="section level3"> |
62 | 62 | <h3>Existing hypotheses</h3> |
63 | 63 | <p>In both academic articles and the broader public discourse, several possible explanations have been floated for the drop in CFR, mostly centering around the following hypotheses:</p> |
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